The Future of Star Trek Analysis

Usually the decision to cancel a show on streaming is rarely done in less than two weeks after its season has aired. Yet Paramount+ did that with Starfleet Academy. When its fast be it in streaming or regular TV it almost always indicates a show wildly underperformed and that seems likely here. 

Possibly could blame the merger with Warner Bros. and Paramount but with second season yet to air and likely time on actor contracts, there was no reason to make a decision this early and quickly except to clear the decks.

Strange New Worlds will likely have both seasons release this year and wouldn't be remotely surprised if its the entire seasons at once to save money on advertising. Same with season two of Academy once its completed post-production either late this year or early 2027.

I will be blunt - Star Trek television is dead for the foreseeable future. The movies remain a possibility but suspect the plan is a complete reboot of the franchise.

While there is a loud but vocal minority on social media that hates "Nu-Trek" and attacks anyone that likes it, I doubt Kurtzman's shepherding of Trek has anything to do with it. The reason is the merged company will have a debt problem and now an over abundance of inventory.

Simple fact is Star Trek television shows is no longer needed by Paramount+. The franchise was used to show how serious the then new streaming service was and to drive viewers to them for content can't get anywhere else. After the merger is complete, there is no urgency for new Trek content. 

With the plan to merge Paramount+ with HBO Max creating a service larger than Netflix in reach of catalog content. So big that Paramount/WB will control 40% of "most-watched acquired series on streaming both domestically and globally." Licensing out portions of their catalog for syndication and streaming is likely a significant pillar of their financial future alongside their own streaming service.

The other reason is budget. Star Trek shows nowadays are not as cheap to make as use to be with huge sets and expensive visual effects. Trek shows can be made cheaper again as the past clearly shows but no point as studio heads would still have the same expectations for a show made at $1 million vs $10 million per episode so might as well go big if expectations don't change. 

This leads to some really bad math when it comes to the Skydance's Paramount and Warner Bros merger. Currently the estimated value of the two companies will land around $120 billion, a number that exists only because Skydance made it up when it agreed to pay $110 billion for a company worth of around $70 billion before bidding war started. Paramount, after its buyout by Skydance was worth around $10 billion. How does a much smaller company buy a much bigger company? Taking on debt and a lot of it with the help of Oracle founder Larry Ellison's whose estimated worth is $198 billion and is backing his son's David Ellison big Hollywood ambitions.

In this case that is estimated $79 billion in debt with real possibility of it being much higher. So thanks almost exclusively on bidding up its value, the merged company has a paper value of around $120 billion. I suspect once the merger goes through and Wall Street has its say with the stock, the real value of the combined company will be lower, possibility lower than $79 billion. None of this is financial advise, I definitely am not someone to go to for that. 

Suffice it to say Paramount/WB, regardless of what value it lands on after the merger is going to have a gigantic anchor around its neck as corporate debt still has interest payments. Not as large as it is for regular people but even a few percentages is significant when talking billions. Low estimates is at least $700 million per year just on interest payments that does nothing to decrease the debt. Inability to pay the interest on debt is why companies usually end up filing for bankruptcy.

While the Ellisons are making (empty) promises that it will be business as usual after the merger, those interest payments alone prove that will not be the case. Budgets have to be cut, significant parts of the company will have to be sold and huge volume of will be implemented as every single decision will be driven by one thing - how will it reduce the debt.

Star Trek is a guaranteed money maker for Paramount. Anything created for Trek will be profitable with time, even the Section 31 movie. Time that the merged Paramount/WB doesn't have. They don't want anything that will eventually be profitable in five or ten years. They want to create or sell things that will be immediately profitable upon release. Every dollar will be pinched and every dollar spent will be expected to return several times of its value back. This means they will have a singular focus on summer tent poles and high concept television shows. Star Trek TV is too slow for their new focus.

So what does this mean for the movies? Cannot get more high concept than a total reboot, clearing the decks of all continuity and starting over but cracking that nut will be harder than they think. Paramount has been promising a new movie for over 10 years and is no closer today than it was then. Many attempts have been rejected, most deemed too costly for expected return. I don't see that changing anytime soon despite what is likely genuine interest to make a new theatrical movie by Paramount.

To sum it all up - Star Trek will once again go back to hibernating. For how long, who knows.